------------------------------------------------------------------------------- name: log: output/stata/analysis.log log type: text opened on: 13 Oct 2026, 18:58:54 . import delimited "data/indicators.csv", clear varnames(1) asdouble (encoding automatically selected: ISO-8859-2) (4 vars, 204 obs) . isid iso3 year . assert inrange(year,1991,2024) . assert _N == 204 . encode iso3, generate(country_id) . xtset country_id year Panel variable: country_id (strongly balanced) Time variable: year, 1991 to 2024 Delta: 1 unit . generate double delta_unemployment = unemployment - L.unemployment (6 missing values generated) . export delimited iso3 year gdp_growth unemployment delta_unemployment using " > output/stata/analysis-data.csv", replace file output/stata/analysis-data.csv saved . file open results using "output/stata/estimates.csv", write replace . file write results "iso3,n,intercept,slope,standard_error,ci_lower,ci_upper,r > _squared" _n . local graphs "" . foreach country in USA CHN JPN DEU GBR CAN { 2. regress delta_unemployment gdp_growth if iso3=="`country'" & inrange(y > ear,1992,2024) 3. scalar lower = _b[gdp_growth] - invttail(e(df_r),.025)*_se[gdp_growth] 4. scalar upper = _b[gdp_growth] + invttail(e(df_r),.025)*_se[gdp_growth] 5. file write results "`country'," %12.0f (e(N)) "," %21.15g (_b[_cons]) > "," %21.15g (_b[gdp_growth]) "," %21.15g (_se[gdp_growth]) "," %21.15g (lower > ) "," %21.15g (upper) "," %21.15g (e(r2)) _n 6. twoway (lfitci delta_unemployment gdp_growth if iso3=="`country'" & ye > ar>=1992) (scatter delta_unemployment gdp_growth if iso3=="`country'" & year> > =1992), name(g_`country', replace) title("`country'") xtitle("Real GDP growth > (%)") ytitle("Unemployment change (pp)") legend(off) 7. local graphs "`graphs' g_`country'" 8. } Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 33 -------------+---------------------------------- F(1, 31) = 55.04 Model | 33.3761785 1 33.3761785 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 18.7992404 31 .606427109 R-squared = 0.6397 -------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.6281 Total | 52.1754189 32 1.63048184 Root MSE = .77873 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ delta_unem~t | Coefficient Std. err. t P>|t| [95% conf. interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- gdp_growth | -.5943815 .0801191 -7.42 0.000 -.7577855 -.4309774 _cons | 1.463928 .248842 5.88 0.000 .9564117 1.971445 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 33 -------------+---------------------------------- F(1, 31) = 0.19 Model | .009490304 1 .009490304 Prob > F = 0.6661 Residual | 1.55016424 31 .050005298 R-squared = 0.0061 -------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = -0.0260 Total | 1.55965455 32 .048739205 Root MSE = .22362 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ delta_unem~t | Coefficient Std. err. t P>|t| [95% conf. interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- gdp_growth | -.005938 .0136303 -0.44 0.666 -.0337371 .0218612 _cons | .119822 .1267498 0.95 0.352 -.1386859 .3783299 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 33 -------------+---------------------------------- F(1, 31) = 15.57 Model | 1.46479122 1 1.46479122 Prob > F = 0.0004 Residual | 2.91711641 31 .094100529 R-squared = 0.3343 -------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.3128 Total | 4.38190764 32 .136934614 Root MSE = .30676 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ delta_unem~t | Coefficient Std. err. t P>|t| [95% conf. interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- gdp_growth | -.1065851 .027015 -3.95 0.000 -.1616824 -.0514877 _cons | .0943696 .0572109 1.65 0.109 -.0223127 .2110519 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 33 -------------+---------------------------------- F(1, 31) = 9.26 Model | 4.50207033 1 4.50207033 Prob > F = 0.0047 Residual | 15.0695275 31 .486113792 R-squared = 0.2300 -------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.2052 Total | 19.5715979 32 .611612434 Root MSE = .69722 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ delta_unem~t | Coefficient Std. err. t P>|t| [95% conf. interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- gdp_growth | -.1808179 .0594161 -3.04 0.005 -.3019979 -.0596379 _cons | .161731 .1412333 1.15 0.261 -.1263162 .4497782 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 33 -------------+---------------------------------- F(1, 31) = 11.82 Model | 4.57801208 1 4.57801208 Prob > F = 0.0017 Residual | 12.0043378 31 .387236703 R-squared = 0.2761 -------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.2527 Total | 16.5823499 32 .518198434 Root MSE = .62228 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ delta_unem~t | Coefficient Std. err. t P>|t| [95% conf. interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- gdp_growth | -.1259565 .0366328 -3.44 0.002 -.2006696 -.0512434 _cons | .1367858 .1327309 1.03 0.311 -.1339207 .4074923 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 33 -------------+---------------------------------- F(1, 31) = 140.65 Model | 30.5205483 1 30.5205483 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 6.72704799 31 .217001548 R-squared = 0.8194 -------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.8136 Total | 37.2475962 32 1.16398738 Root MSE = .46583 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ delta_unem~t | Coefficient Std. err. t P>|t| [95% conf. interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- gdp_growth | -.464457 .0391634 -11.86 0.000 -.5443314 -.3845827 _cons | .9886565 .1237629 7.99 0.000 .7362404 1.241073 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . file close results . graph combine `graphs', rows(2) xcommon ycommon title("GDP growth and unemplo > yment change, 1992-2024") note("World Bank WDI / ILO modeled estimates; descr > iptive OLS mean-fit 95% CI") . graph export "output/stata/okun-six-countries.svg", replace file output/stata/okun-six-countries.svg saved as SVG format . graph export "output/stata/okun-six-countries.png", width(2400) replace file output/stata/okun-six-countries.png written in PNG format . display "WORLDBANK_STATA_COMPLETED" WORLDBANK_STATA_COMPLETED . log close name: log: output/stata/analysis.log log type: text closed on: 13 Oct 2026, 18:58:57 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